This “Red Wave” Evidence Is Spreading Like Wildfire
(ConservativeInsider.org) – As primary elections continue to roll out week after week, political forecasters are getting more information to help them understand what the November midterms might look like. For years, University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato has published “Crystal Ball” notes with his educated predictions for upcoming elections. It seems he thinks there is a high likelihood of a red wave taking the US by storm in a few months.
Sabato Predicts Many Districts Turning Red
On Wednesday, June 15, UVA’s Crystal Ball announced it was making four rating changes after observing the four primaries that took place the night before. In Texas, experts predicted District 15 would lean slightly towards electing a Republican representative, but now it is more firm in its belief the constituents will “likely” vote for a Conservative. In Texas’ District 34, the likelihood of a Democrat winning went from “likely” to simply “leaning,” meaning it could still sway red.
The Crystal Ball did note, however, that Rep. Mike Lee (R-UT) is not as safe an incumbent in November as it once thought. His seat moved from a “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican” as Democrats vie for the seat.
Republicans Have History on Their Side
While the party not in the White House typically wins more seats in the midterm elections, Republicans are not taking that for granted. They are working hard to try and net a historic number of seats in November.
National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Emmer is hoping his party gains 35 House seats, which would give the GOP 248 seats in the lower chamber, the largest number since the 1928 election.
If Republicans net 35 seats, they’d hold their biggest House majority since 1929. If they win 29 seats, they’d match the number of seats held after the 2010 midterms.@HotlineJosh with the latest Against the Grain (unlocked):https://t.co/YCa7t6lhXJ pic.twitter.com/tjTooAqY6o
— National Journal (@nationaljournal) June 14, 2022
The following GOP House candidates are just a few that Americans should be keeping an eye on to see if an enormous wave is coming:
- Kim Schrier of Washington
- Abigail Spanberger of Virginia
- Angie Craig of Minnesota
In addition, there’s an open seat in Oregon that bears watching. Each of these districts is in the suburbs and voted for President Joe Biden by a single-digit margin, making them key spots for Republicans to target in their campaigns.
However, there are two Republicans running in districts that voted for Biden with double-digit margins: Mike Garcia (R-CA) and David Valadao (R-CA). While it will be a toss-up if these Conservatives can keep their seats, it’s still possible.
How Many Seats Do Republicans Really Need?
While gaining 35 more seats in the House would make history, simply netting 20 seats would provide House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) with enough manpower to push bills through his chamber, even with some pushback from within his party.
So, as the US looks to the November midterms, it is vital to read up on and support candidates who reflect your ideals and hopes for the nation and community.
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