President Biden has approved a classified nuclear strategy plan to address rising threats from China and Russia, signaling a shift in America’s global security approach.
At a Glance
- Biden approved a highly classified nuclear strategic plan in March called the “Nuclear Employment Guidance”
- The strategy focuses on China’s rapid nuclear arsenal expansion and potential coordinated threats from China, Russia, and North Korea
- Pentagon believes China’s nuclear stockpiles will rival those of the U.S. and Russia within the next decade
- The plan includes updating U.S. nuclear capabilities while engaging in global non-proliferation efforts
Biden’s New Nuclear Strategy: Addressing Multiple Threats
In a significant move to adapt to evolving global nuclear threats, President Joe Biden has approved a highly classified nuclear strategic plan. The “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” signed off in March, represents a crucial shift in America’s approach to nuclear deterrence, particularly in light of China’s expanding nuclear capabilities and ongoing challenges from Russia.
The strategy reorients America’s deterrent posture to address multiple nuclear-armed adversaries simultaneously. This marks a departure from previous strategies that primarily focused on Russia as the main nuclear threat. The Pentagon now believes that China’s nuclear stockpiles could rival those of the U.S. and Russia within the next decade, necessitating a more comprehensive approach to nuclear deterrence.
Breaking News: President Biden approved the first secret nuclear strategy that focuses on possible coordinated threats from Russia, China and North Korea. https://t.co/0UyDbjGeOD
— The New York Times (@nytimes) August 20, 2024
China’s Rising Nuclear Capabilities: A New Focus
The Biden administration’s strategy places significant emphasis on China’s rapid nuclear arsenal expansion. This shift comes as intelligence estimates suggest China might increase its nuclear arsenal to 1,000 warheads by 2030, a substantial increase from the estimated 500 warheads it possessed in January 2024.
“The president recently issued updated nuclear-weapons employment guidance to account for multiple nuclear-armed adversaries,” said Vipin Narang, an M.I.T. nuclear strategist who served in the Pentagon. “And in particular,” he added, the weapons guidance accounted for “the significant increase in the size and diversity” of China’s nuclear arsenal.
This new focus on China has not gone unnoticed by Beijing. China’s foreign ministry expressed serious concern over the reports, accusing the U.S. of promoting a “China nuclear threat theory.” China maintains a “no-first-use” policy for nuclear weapons and claims that the U.S. poses a greater nuclear threat.
Balancing Deterrence and Diplomacy
While the strategy emphasizes military preparedness, it also underscores the importance of diplomatic engagement and international cooperation. The Biden administration has signaled its willingness to engage in arms control discussions, despite challenges in maintaining existing agreements with Russia and initiating talks with China.
The spokesperson Sean Savett said that while “the specific text of the guidance is classified, its existence is in no way secret. The guidance issued earlier this year is not a response to any single entity, country, nor threat.”
The strategy aims to strike a delicate balance between projecting strength and fostering stability. It includes efforts to update U.S. nuclear capabilities, such as the introduction of a new “super-fuze” for ballistic missiles, while simultaneously pursuing global non-proliferation efforts.
Implications for Global Security
The public acknowledgment of this new strategy may have far-reaching consequences for global security dynamics. It could potentially prompt China and Russia to increase their nuclear readiness and countermeasures. Moreover, with the last major nuclear arms control agreement with Russia, New Start, set to expire in early 2026 and no subsequent agreement in place, the international community faces a period of heightened uncertainty in nuclear arms control.
As the Biden administration navigates these complex challenges, it remains committed to a multi-pronged approach that combines military preparedness with diplomatic engagement. The goal is to ensure America’s security while working towards a more stable global nuclear order in an increasingly multipolar world.
