J. Ann Selzer, renowned pollster behind the Iowa Poll, retires after a significant miss in the 2024 presidential election prediction.
At a Glance
- Selzer’s final Iowa Poll incorrectly predicted Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump.
- Trump won Iowa by 13 points, despite the poll showing a 3-point lead for Harris.
- Selzer’s retirement decision was made over a year ago, unrelated to the 2024 election outcome.
- The Des Moines Register plans to revamp its polling methodology following the inaccurate prediction.
Veteran Pollster Bows Out After Surprising Misstep
J. Ann Selzer, the veteran pollster behind the highly respected Iowa Poll, has announced her retirement from election polling following an unexpected inaccuracy in the 2024 presidential election prediction. Selzer, who has been responsible for the Iowa Poll since 1997, saw her final survey miss the mark significantly when it predicted Democratic candidate Kamala Harris ahead of Republican nominee Donald Trump in Iowa.
The final Iowa Poll gave Harris a 3-point lead over Trump, but the actual election results showed Trump winning the state by a substantial 13-point margin. This discrepancy has raised questions about the reliability of current polling methods and sparked discussions within the political sphere about the challenges faced by pollsters in accurately gauging public opinion.
A Legacy of Accuracy Meets an Unexpected Challenge
Despite this recent setback, Selzer’s career has been marked by a long history of largely accurate predictions. Her work with various organizations, including the Des Moines Register, Detroit Free Press, Indianapolis Star, and Bloomberg News, has earned her a reputation for precision and reliability in electoral polling.
Selzer, 68, has maintained an A+ rating in Nate Silver’s analysis of pollsters’ accuracy over 30 years. Her notable past polls include accurately predicting Barack Obama’s win in the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses and Trump’s victory over Biden in Iowa in 2020.
Retirement Decision Predates Election Outcome
Contrary to speculation, Selzer’s decision to retire was made over a year ago and is unrelated to the 2024 election outcome. “Over a year ago, I advised the Register I would not renew my contract when it expired in 2024, as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,” Selzer explained.
The Des Moines Register, which oversees the Iowa Poll, has stated that there was no single cause for the discrepancy between Selzer’s poll and the final election results. In response to the inaccurate prediction, the Register plans to revamp its polling methodology.
Implications for the Polling Industry
This incident adds to the ongoing credibility issues faced by pollsters, following previous inaccuracies in 2016 and 2020. It underscores the need for the polling industry to adapt and evolve its methodologies to more accurately reflect public opinion in an ever-changing political landscape.
“Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So I’m humbled yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings,” Selzer reflected.
As the polling community grapples with this latest challenge, the focus now turns to developing more robust and adaptive polling techniques to ensure accurate representation of voter sentiment in future elections.
Sources:
- US pollster J Ann Selzer retires after Iowa poll inaccurately predicted Harris ahead of Trump
- Pollster Ann Selzer ending election polling, moving ‘to other ventures and opportunities’
- After Getting Election Polling Spectacularly Wrong, Top-Rated Pollster Quits the Business
- Ann Selzer Announces End of Election Polling Operation
