A leading higher education expert has warned that up to one-quarter of American colleges and universities face closure in the coming years, exposing the unsustainable consequences of decades of administrative bloat, declining enrollment, and questionable priorities that prioritized diversity initiatives over academic excellence and fiscal responsibility.
Story Snapshot
- Arthur Levine predicts 20-25% of U.S. colleges will close due to enrollment declines and financial pressures
- 16 colleges already closed in 2025, following 28 closures in 2024 and 14 in 2023
- Small private colleges and religious institutions face greatest risk from demographic cliff and debt aversion
- Elite universities thrive while working-class institutions serving traditional American communities struggle
Expert Issues Stark Warning on Higher Education Crisis
Arthur Levine, president of the Check Sheet Institute and a prominent higher education authority, delivered a sobering forecast at an American Enterprise Institute event in late 2025. Levine warned that 20-25% of U.S. colleges may shut their doors permanently, potentially affecting hundreds of institutions. This prediction far exceeds the Federal Reserve’s 2024 estimate of 80 closures over five years. The crisis represents a reckoning for an industry that expanded recklessly while burdening students with massive debt and increasingly questionable academic value for hardworking American families.
Accelerating Closure Trend Reveals Systemic Vulnerability
The pace of college closures has accelerated dramatically in recent years, revealing deep structural problems. After 14 institutions closed in 2023, the number doubled to 28 in 2024. In 2025, 16 more colleges announced closures, including Penn State’s seven commonwealth campuses set to shut by 2027. Since 2008, nearly 300 associate-degree-or-higher institutions have closed, with over 100 disappearing in just the past eight years. Small private colleges with enrollments under 2,000 students face the greatest peril, particularly religious institutions that often serve conservative communities committed to traditional values and academic freedom.
The demographic reality driving this crisis is undeniable. The high-school-age population is projected to fall 13% between 2026 and 2041, creating what experts call a “demographic cliff.” Total U.S. college enrollment has stagnated or declined over five years as families increasingly question whether expensive degrees deliver real value. Students and parents justifiably avoid crushing debt loads for credentials that often fail to lead to meaningful employment. Meanwhile, international enrollment visits have plummeted 41%, risking $6.2 billion in revenue loss as America’s higher education reputation suffers.
Regional and Institutional Disparities Expose Elite Advantage
The crisis hits hardest in Northeast states like Vermont, which has witnessed five college failures in just two to three years, devastating small communities where these institutions served as economic and cultural anchors. Trinity Christian College exemplifies the struggle, losing enrollment from 1,068 students in 2019 to just 872 in 2024 before announcing closure. Institutions like Siena Heights, Sterling College, and numerous religious colleges face similar fates. Credit agencies Fitch, Moody’s, and Standard & Poor’s have issued “deteriorating” outlooks for 2026, citing federal loan caps and continued enrollment pressure.
In stark contrast, elite institutions like Harvard thrive with five applicants competing for every spot, benefiting from what economists call “flight to quality.” This dynamic widens the gap between wealthy coastal universities and the working-class institutions serving Middle America. Richard Vedder, emeritus economics professor at Ohio University, notes that mergers increasingly replace outright closures, though this offers cold comfort to affected students and communities. Preston Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute advocates tuition cuts to boost revenue, noting that basic economics—demand curves slope downward—seems lost on administrators who raised prices while delivering less value.
Government Policies and Institutional Mismanagement Compound Crisis
The crisis stems partly from institutional choices that alienated traditional students and families. Many colleges prioritized diversity programs and progressive activism over academic rigor and affordability, driving away students who sought genuine education rather than ideological indoctrination. Federal policy shifts under the Trump administration, including grant adjustments and loan caps, now pressure institutions to justify their costs and outcomes. This represents necessary accountability for an industry that too often served administrators and activists rather than students and taxpayers.
These colleges rejected qualifying good students in lieu of DEI and gave out scholarships like candy. Now they are dying- good.
University President Warns That a Quarter of American Colleges and Universities Will Close in Coming Years https://t.co/mUSnhEAQxg #gatewaypundit via…
— JavaJones (@JavaJen33) January 21, 2026
Economists predict steady closures will continue, with some models forecasting potential spikes if enrollment drops 15%, which could trigger a 42% increase in closure rates. The shift toward three-year degree programs, industry partnerships, and short-term credentials reflects belated recognition that traditional four-year models no longer serve many students’ needs or financial realities. For conservative Americans who value practical education, fiscal responsibility, and institutions that respect rather than attack their values, these closures may ultimately force overdue reforms in a sector desperately needing accountability and common-sense restructuring.
Sources:
16 colleges closed in 2025, and more could shut down in 2026
Colleges That Couldn’t Survive 2025
Colleges Are Closing. Who Might Be Next?
Here are 5 higher ed predictions for 2026
Higher education faces ‘deteriorating’ 2026 outlook, Fitch says
Why Arthur Levine believes 25 percent of US colleges are headed for closure
Hundreds of U.S. Colleges Poised to Close in Next Decade, Expert Says


