‘Black Hole’ Subs Rock South China Sea

Russia armed China’s navy with stealthy “black hole” submarines two decades ago, fueling Beijing’s aggressive push in the South China Sea and threatening U.S. interests under President Trump’s America First agenda.

Story Snapshot

China bought 12 Russian Kilo-class submarines from 1994-2002, nicknamed “black holes” for their near-undetectable stealth.
These subs bolstered China’s non-nuclear fleet for operations near Taiwan and the South China Sea, heightening regional tensions.
Russia cashed in post-Soviet collapse, selling to China while balancing sales to India, risking tech proliferation.
Ten Kilos remain active as of 2025, though China shifts to homegrown designs after reverse-engineering Russian technology.

Historical Arms Deals Timeline

China ordered two Project 877 Kilo-class submarines from Russia in 1994. Two upgraded variants followed in 1996. The largest batch, eight advanced Project 636M units, arrived by 2002. These diesel-electric subs feature low acoustic signatures from anechoic tiles and quiet propulsion, earning the “black hole” moniker for evasion capabilities. Russia built them at yards like Krasnoye Sormovo to generate revenue after the Soviet collapse. This sale formed the backbone of China’s non-nuclear submarine force, optimized for coastal defense and Taiwan scenarios.

Strategic Capabilities and Stakeholder Motivations

The Kilo-class subs carry crews of 52, dive to 300 meters, range 12,000 kilometers, and patrol up to 45 days. Eight Project 636M units launch anti-ship cruise missiles, enhancing anti-access threats. Russia’s post-1991 leaders under Yeltsin and Putin prioritized cash over proliferation risks, funding domestic Lada-class development. China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy sought these after indigenous subs underperformed. Licensing limited uncontrolled copies, but Beijing reverse-engineered tech into Yuan-class successors. Russia balanced exports by selling similar subs to India.

Current Status and Shifts in Naval Power

By late 2021, China retired its two oldest Project 877 Kilos, leaving ten in service as of 2025. No new sales occurred since 2002. A 2012 framework for four Lada/Amur-1650 subs remains unconfirmed in inventories. Russia’s Ukraine conflict strained exports, shifting focus to its own Improved Kilo production. China’s PLAN prioritizes indigenous Type 039A/B Yuan-class subs, signaling reduced Russian dependence. Experts note Kilos’ enduring stealth edge in shallow South China Sea waters despite age limitations like 17-20 knot submerged speeds.

These deals strained U.S. monitoring in the 1990s-2010s, as stealthy Kilos complicated regional operations. Long-term, they accelerated China’s self-reliance, heightening tensions for Taiwan and U.S. allies. Under President Trump, bolstering American naval superiority counters such proliferation, protecting free navigation and deterring aggression.