Trump’s Strategy a Massive Success, Leads to Historic Lows

Border protection vehicle near a large metal fence.

Illegal border crossings at the U.S. southern border have plummeted to historic lows, with just 8,326 encounters in February, marking a staggering 96% decrease from the Biden administration’s December 2023 high of 301,981.

Quick Takes

  • February 2025 border apprehensions reached the lowest level in recorded history, down 94% from the same month last year.
  • The dramatic decrease follows Trump administration enforcement measures including military deployments, expedited removals, and ending sanctuary city protections.
  • A new “reverse migration” trend has emerged with migrants voluntarily returning home rather than attempting to cross the border.
  • Interior ICE arrests increased by 137% in the first weeks of the administration compared to 2024.
  • The last time monthly apprehensions averaged around 8,000 was in fiscal year 1968.

Historic Decline in Border Crossings

U.S. Border Patrol Chief Michael W. Banks confirmed that February apprehensions at the southern border hit an unprecedented low of 8,326 encounters, representing the lowest monthly total in recent history. This figure marks a dramatic 94% decrease from February of last year and continues a sharp downward trend that began with President Trump’s inauguration. The current numbers are particularly significant when compared to the peak of the border crisis under the previous administration, which saw daily apprehensions sometimes exceeding 8,000—more than the entire month of February 2025.

The last comparable low was in April 2017, with 11,000 apprehensions. Historical data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection reveals that the last time monthly apprehensions consistently averaged around 8,000 was in fiscal year 1968—over five decades ago. The decline has accelerated dramatically since January, with a 70% decrease in just one month, demonstrating the immediate impact of the administration’s border enforcement policies.

Trump Administration’s Enforcement Measures

The significant reduction in illegal crossings has been achieved through a comprehensive set of executive actions. The administration declared a national emergency at the border, deployed U.S. military forces, ended birthright citizenship, suspended refugee admissions, and resumed construction of the border wall. The Pentagon has opened Guantánamo Bay facilities to process migrants and provided substantial resources to support border security operations.

Interior enforcement has also been dramatically strengthened with the reversal of Biden-era ICE restrictions. Law enforcement officials can now conduct expedited removals and review the parole statuses of immigrants who entered illegally. This has resulted in a 137% increase in interior ICE arrests from January 20 to February 8 compared to the same period in 2024. High-profile raids in “sanctuary” cities have resulted in over a thousand daily arrests, with particular focus on violent criminals and gang members.

Reverse Migration and Shelter Closures

A previously unseen “reverse migration” trend has emerged as word of the strict enforcement policies spreads throughout migration corridors. Many potential migrants are choosing to return home mid-journey rather than risk crossing the border. This has contributed significantly to the lower crossing numbers and represents a fundamental shift in migration patterns. Several non-governmental migrant shelters have closed due to reduced federal funding and dramatically decreased migrant numbers.

The administration has also taken steps to ensure federal funds do not support sanctuary policies or assist illegal immigration. A recent order directed federal agencies to identify and correct federally funded programs that provide financial benefits to illegal immigrants. The government has reclaimed tens of millions of dollars from municipalities like New York City that had been designated for housing migrants, further disincentivizing illegal entry and sanctuary policies.

Continued Challenges

Despite the remarkable success at the border, the administration faces operational challenges with interior deportation efforts. ICE continues to struggle with capacity and logistical issues as it ramps up enforcement nationwide. The dramatic increase in enforcement activities has strained resources, particularly in areas that previously limited cooperation with federal immigration authorities. However, the administration remains committed to its enforcement strategy, with plans to further expand capabilities in the coming months.

The decline in illegal crossings represents a stark contrast to the border situation over the past several years. While border crossings had been gradually declining over the past year due to Mexican enforcement efforts and Biden-era asylum restrictions, the precipitous drop since January demonstrates the effectiveness of a comprehensive enforcement approach.

Sources:

  1. Trump reports illegal immigrant encounters at historic lows during first full month in office
  2. Amid Trump crackdown, illegal border crossings plunge to levels not seen in decades
  3. TRUMP EFFECT: Migrant Encounters at Southern Border Hit Lowest-Ever Mark, Down 94 Percent from Last February